Is the Bitcoin Bull Run Over? NUPL and MVRV Say Watch Out, Smart Money Is Leaving

📊 1. On-Chain Indicators

✅ NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss)

• NUPL has pulled back from historically high levels. This suggests that most investors are still in profit, but a local top might be in.

• Historically, similar levels have preceded corrections (e.g., 2017, 2021).
  📉 Risk of a correction is elevated.

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✅ MVRV Z-Score

• It peaked around 4–5 and is now pulling back. These zones usually indicate overvaluation and market tops.

• Every previous bull cycle saw pullbacks after this level.
  ⚠️ Strong warning of potential topping.

🔄 2. Derivatives Market

✅ Funding Rates

• Predominantly positive funding → long positions are dominant.

• When funding is too positive, it signals market euphoria and can lead to a long squeeze.
  ⚠️ Overconfidence = possible volatility ahead.

✅ Open Interest

• High and steady open interest shows significant capital in derivatives.

• If price drops while OI remains high, liquidations are likely.
  💣 Potential for rapid downside moves.

🏦 3. Exchange Balances & Wallet Behavior

✅ Exchange BTC Balances

• Decreasing balances suggest accumulation (investors withdrawing to cold storage).
  🟢 Bullish long-term signal.

✅ Wallet Distribution

• Retail wallets increasing → possible late-stage FOMO.

• Whale wallets declining → possible distribution (selling).
  ⚖️ Profit-taking phase could be in progress.

🔔 Overall Market Sentiment

📅 Strategic Outlook

• Short-Term Traders: Tighten stop-losses, expect increased volatility.

• Long-Term Investors: Consider partial profit-taking, reaccumulate later.

• New Buyers: Not an ideal entry zone — wait for clearer structure or correction.