Bitcoin entered 2025 with strong upward momentum but seems to have entered a consolidation phase in recent weeks. So, what do on-chain metrics tell us? Will the uptrend continue, or will the correction persist? Here’s a data-driven, realistic analysis based on the latest indicators.
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🔵 1. NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss): Profits Are Fading, FOMO Eases
The NUPL chart shows that most investors are still in profit. However, a key detail stands out: NUPL has been trending downward recently. This suggests a growing tendency to realize profits and a shift toward more cautious behavior.
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NUPL is falling from elevated levels → The euphoric phase may be ending.
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Still in the positive zone → Not a bear market signal yet, but caution is warranted.
🟠 2. BTC Balance on Exchanges: Still Dropping, But Slowing
Historically, declining BTC balances on exchanges indicate long-term holding and reduced selling pressure. In the latest data:
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Exchange reserves dropped between February and March 2025, supporting bullish momentum.
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But by late March, the rate of decline slowed, and minor upticks were observed.
This may signal the beginning of profit-taking behavior. While the long-term trend remains bullish, short-term selling pressure could increase.
📊 3. MVRV Z-Score: Pullback from Overheated Zone
MVRV Z-Score helps us understand how “overvalued” the market is relative to its fair value. The chart shows:
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Z-Score reached levels around 10, typically associated with cycle peaks.
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It has since started to pull back, suggesting a cooling-off phase.
This doesn’t yet indicate a bear market, but rather a healthy correction after a strong rally.
⚒️ 4. Puell Multiple: Miners Are Profitable, But Not Dumping
Puell Multiple tracks miner behavior and profitability. Currently:
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Values above 10 show miners are deep in profit, increasing the potential for selling.
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But levels are not yet extreme compared to previous peaks.
In short: Some miner selling may be happening, but no panic.
🧩 5. Fragmentation Monitor and UTXO Analysis: Retail Entry Slowing
Fragmentation Monitor revealed that retail investor participation surged during the recent rally. However, as of April 2025:
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UTXO count has begun to decline slightly after a peak.
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This indicates that the pace of new retail entry is slowing.
That could mean the momentum behind the rally is weakening.
🐋 6. Wallet Segmentation: Whales Accumulating, Retail Hesitating
Looking into wallet activity:
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100K+ wallets (whales) are increasing – this may point to institutional activity.
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1–10 BTC wallets remain flat or slightly down, suggesting smaller investors are unsure.
Notably, 10–100 BTC wallets are decreasing, indicating that mid-size holders might be realizing profits.
🎯 Summary Table:
| Metric | Status | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| NUPL | Trending downward | Profit-taking behavior is increasing |
| Exchange BTC Reserves | Declining slowly | Selling pressure may be emerging |
| MVRV Z-Score | Pulling back | Market cooling after overheating |
| Puell Multiple | High, but stable | Miners in profit, no panic selling |
| UTXO/Fragmentation | Slight decrease | Slower retail entry |
| Wallet Segments | Whales up, retail flat | Institutions buying, retail on the sidelines |
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Final Thoughts: Cautious Optimism
On-chain metrics still reflect a strong underlying structure for Bitcoin. However, several indicators now point to a cooling phase where profit-taking and hesitation dominate.
📌 Long-term trend remains positive, but short-term price action may be range-bound or corrective. Whale activity should be closely monitored, and a renewed surge in retail participation could reignite upward momentum.
