In recent weeks, a notable divergence has emerged in the crypto market: while Bitcoin maintains its trend, the altcoin market cap (TOTAL3) has shown a significant recovery. But is this rally a sign of a sustainable expansion, or merely a temporary rotation rally?
🔍 What Does NUPL (CDDStamp Version) Say?
CDDStamp’s block-based NUPL metric differs from traditional versions by offering more granular and real-time responsiveness. Current data shows that NUPL levels are approaching historical cycle peaks, indicating that a large portion of investors are sitting on substantial unrealized profits and that the market may be entering a euphoria phase.
💡 A Clear Surge in TOTAL3
The total altcoin market cap (excluding BTC and ETH) is now approaching the critical resistance level of $1.13 trillion. This zone has previously triggered significant sell-offs, reversing trends. Its retest now is notable.
This upward movement brings the idea of capital rotation back into focus. Investors may be reallocating their gains from BTC into altcoins in search of new opportunities — a behavior observed in past market cycles.
🔄 What Is a Rotation Rally?
A rotation rally refers to periods when market liquidity shifts from primary assets like BTC into altcoins. These rotations often trigger sharp gains in alternative tokens. However, for these moves to be sustainable, they must be supported by broader market confidence. Otherwise, they tend to unwind quickly as liquidity dries up.
📉 Structural Expansion or Temporary Spike?
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If TOTAL3 manages to break above the $1.13T level and hold, this could mark the start of a new altcoin expansion phase.
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However, if NUPL remains elevated and TOTAL3 fails to break out, the move will likely be remembered as just another temporary rotation — much like in Q4 of 2021.
📌 Final Thoughts
The core question for investors today is this:
“Is the current rise in altcoins a signal of structural trend change, or just a short-lived rotation fueled by profit-taking?“
When interpreted together, CDDStamp’s NUPL data and TOTAL3 price structure don’t yet give a definitive answer — but they clearly signal caution. This is one of those moments where data should lead decisions, not emotion.
