What Are Bitcoin’s On-Chain Signals Really Telling Us? Fragmentation, Distribution, and a Market Losing Strength Price alone doesn’t tell the full story in crypto. The real picture comes from combining on-chain data, investor behavior, and market structure. Right now, those layers are pointing in the same direction-and it’s not a strong one. 1. The Trend […]
As gold trades around historic highs, the most common question is this: “After such a strong rally, doesn’t it need a correction?” The question is technically valid—but incomplete. Because gold no longer behaves merely as a commodity or an inflation hedge. What price is telling us points beyond classical cycles, toward a regime shift. Today’s
Gold: Overbought or a Regime Shift? Read More »
Technical analysis of structures outside classical harmonic formations Summary In financial markets, harmonic patterns (Gartley, Bat, Crab, Butterfly, etc.) are strictly tied to specific Fibonacci ratios. However, a significant portion of the structures observed in practice do not fully meet these ratios. Despite this, they carry a geometric symmetry and extension character similar to harmonics.
Non-Ideal / Harmonic-Like Structure Read More »
This analysis combines two core on-chain metrics: Distribution by Balance (wallet balance segmentation) Block-based NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss – CDDStamp version) The goal is to clearly determine whether the market is in an uptrend, distribution phase, or a bottoming process. 1. What Does Distribution by Balance Tell Us? Large Wallets (100K+ BTC, 10K–100K BTC) Wallet
Bitcoin On-Chain Outlook: Profit Exists, Enthusiasm Does Not Read More »
This is not my usual style, but I felt the need to step back and look at the macro picture. I’m sharing this chart not for trading purposes, but purely as a relative performance comparison. Order Blocks The reliability of OBs here is limited. Only high-timeframe OBs are meaningful. Existing OBs trigger reactions but fail
XAU/BTC – Weekly, Order Block Assessment Read More »
As of May 2025, the Bitcoin market is transitioning through a critical threshold, driven by both on-chain data and technical indicators. The CDDStamp custom analytics suite provides more precise and earlier signals compared to traditional indicators, offering a sharper and more timely outlook. Below is a chart-based breakdown of critical Bitcoin metrics, ordered by relevance.
Bitcoin Market Analysis – May 2025 Outlook with CDDStamp Indicators Read More »
Data Range: Last 14 daysCandle Type: 1 Hour (1H) 🔹 1. Price & Volatility Metrics Average Hourly Price (OHLC Mean): $100,452 Average Hourly Volatility: 0.55%This indicates an average 0.55% price fluctuation per hour. 🔹 2. Realized Price Metrics STH (Short-Term Holder) Average: $98,622 LTH (Long-Term Holder) Average: $48,119 STH-LTH Spread: $50,503This large spread suggests short-term
Bitcoin Hourly On-Chain & Price Analysis – Insights from the Past 14 Days (as of May 16) Read More »
In recent weeks, a notable divergence has emerged in the crypto market: while Bitcoin maintains its trend, the altcoin market cap (TOTAL3) has shown a significant recovery. But is this rally a sign of a sustainable expansion, or merely a temporary rotation rally? 🔍 What Does NUPL (CDDStamp Version) Say? CDDStamp’s block-based NUPL metric differs
Altcoin Valuations Are Climbing — True Bull Market or Just Rotation? Read More »
The Hidden ETF Script: How Bitcoin Price Is Being Inflated with Fake Volume As of 2025, the notable surges in Bitcoin prices have reignited bullish excitement among investors. However, when we examine the underlying volume data and on-chain behavior, it becomes evident that this rally is driven more by institutional manipulation tactics than real
Introduction: Engineering the Illusion of a Rising Bitcoin Price Read More »
We have previously discussed this topic in a brief article. You can read it here. This way you can understand the topic better. When reviewing recent ETF data (BlackRock, Fidelity, Ark Invest, Grayscale, etc.), the following trends are clearly visible: ETF fund balances are increasing → Especially throughout April, major funds like ARK, BlackRock,
Specific Analysis: “ETF Wars and Their Impact on Bitcoin Price” Read More »
