As gold trades around historic highs, the most common question is this: “After such a strong rally, doesn’t it need a correction?” The question is technically valid—but incomplete. Because gold no longer behaves merely as a commodity or an inflation hedge. What price is telling us points beyond classical cycles, toward a regime shift. Today’s […]
Gold: Overbought or a Regime Shift? Read More »
Technical analysis of structures outside classical harmonic formations Summary In financial markets, harmonic patterns (Gartley, Bat, Crab, Butterfly, etc.) are strictly tied to specific Fibonacci ratios. However, a significant portion of the structures observed in practice do not fully meet these ratios. Despite this, they carry a geometric symmetry and extension character similar to harmonics.
Non-Ideal / Harmonic-Like Structure Read More »
This analysis combines two core on-chain metrics: Distribution by Balance (wallet balance segmentation) Block-based NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss – CDDStamp version) The goal is to clearly determine whether the market is in an uptrend, distribution phase, or a bottoming process. 1. What Does Distribution by Balance Tell Us? Large Wallets (100K+ BTC, 10K–100K BTC) Wallet
Bitcoin On-Chain Outlook: Profit Exists, Enthusiasm Does Not Read More »
This is not my usual style, but I felt the need to step back and look at the macro picture. I’m sharing this chart not for trading purposes, but purely as a relative performance comparison. Order Blocks The reliability of OBs here is limited. Only high-timeframe OBs are meaningful. Existing OBs trigger reactions but fail
XAU/BTC – Weekly, Order Block Assessment Read More »
In financial markets, carry trade is a simple but powerful concept:borrow cheap money and deploy it into higher-risk, higher-return assets. One of the most classic examples of this strategy revolves around Japan. The Japan Example: A Textbook Carry Trade The Bank of Japan has maintained very low interest rates for years. Investors borrow in Japanese
What Is Carry Trade and How Does “Priced-In News” Work? Read More »
Recently, social media and some news outlets have been buzzing with headlines like “monetary expansion has begun.” But the real situation is more complicated. When we look at the global economy today, the major central banks have not started printing new money or injecting fresh liquidity into the markets. In fact, most of them are
How True Are the Claims That “Monetary Expansion Starts Today”? Read More »
As of May 2025, the Bitcoin market is transitioning through a critical threshold, driven by both on-chain data and technical indicators. The CDDStamp custom analytics suite provides more precise and earlier signals compared to traditional indicators, offering a sharper and more timely outlook. Below is a chart-based breakdown of critical Bitcoin metrics, ordered by relevance.
Bitcoin Market Analysis – May 2025 Outlook with CDDStamp Indicators Read More »
Data Range: Last 14 daysCandle Type: 1 Hour (1H) 🔹 1. Price & Volatility Metrics Average Hourly Price (OHLC Mean): $100,452 Average Hourly Volatility: 0.55%This indicates an average 0.55% price fluctuation per hour. 🔹 2. Realized Price Metrics STH (Short-Term Holder) Average: $98,622 LTH (Long-Term Holder) Average: $48,119 STH-LTH Spread: $50,503This large spread suggests short-term
Bitcoin Hourly On-Chain & Price Analysis – Insights from the Past 14 Days (as of May 16) Read More »
In recent weeks, a notable divergence has emerged in the crypto market: while Bitcoin maintains its trend, the altcoin market cap (TOTAL3) has shown a significant recovery. But is this rally a sign of a sustainable expansion, or merely a temporary rotation rally? 🔍 What Does NUPL (CDDStamp Version) Say? CDDStamp’s block-based NUPL metric differs
Altcoin Valuations Are Climbing — True Bull Market or Just Rotation? Read More »
In the fast-moving world of crypto, a few seconds can make all the difference. Sudden whale movements, large transfers, and on-chain pressure often lead the price—not follow it. That’s where the mempool monitor becomes an indispensable tool for serious traders. 🧠 What Is the Mempool? The mempool (short for memory pool) is a temporary holding
What Is a Mempool Monitor and Why Is It Critical for Active Traders? Read More »
