On-Chain Data Doesn’t Lie: Bitcoin Detailed Analysis, April 26, 2025

1. 🧠 On-Chain Analysis

📊 NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss)

• Current Status: NUPL remains in the positive zone (above 100%), but has been trending downward since the beginning of the year.

• Comment: A significant portion of investors are still in profit. However, the decline in NUPL suggests profit-taking and a potential market saturation point approaching.

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🔍 MVRV-Z Score

• Observed Level: Recently tested above 10 and is now decreasing.

• Comment: Historically, this level coincided with market tops. The current descent from overvalued territory may signal a consolidation or a potential correction phase.

💡 Puell Multiple

• Level: Around 1.5 and moving sideways.

• Comment: Miner revenue has not yet reached overheated levels, indicating room for further growth and no significant sell pressure yet.

📈 UTXO Fragmentation (Fragmentation Monitor)

• UTXO Count Rising: Sharp increase observed since March.

• Comment: Indicates new retail investor participation and broader market engagement. Often a precursor to bullish momentum.

🚨 Block Anomaly Monitor

• Status: High UTXO outflows and transaction volumes detected. Anomaly frequency is increasing.

• Comment: May signal movements by large players or institutions. Volatility may increase in the short term.

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2. 📉 Technical Analysis

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📌 Harmonic Pattern: ABCD Structure

• Pattern: A clear AB=CD formation has completed on the chart, with point D acting as a strong reversal zone.

• Comment: The bounce from point D confirms a potential trend reversal and the completion of the harmonic structure.

📐 Fibonacci Retracement Levels

• Resistance Levels:

  • 0.618: $94,570

  • 0.786: $100,903

  • 1.000: $109,588

• Support Levels:

  • 0.5: $90,361

  • 0.382: $86,339

• Comment: The $94.5K zone is a critical resistance. If broken, price may move toward the $100K–110K area. A drop below $90K could trigger stronger pullbacks.

📊 RSI (Relative Strength Index)

• Level: 69.02 – nearing overbought zone.

• Comment: Strong bullish momentum, but approaching overbought conditions. A short-term correction is possible.

📉 Volume Analysis

• Comment: Rising volume alongside price increases suggests healthy buying activity. Sustained growth will require continued buyer interest.

🔚 Summary Overview

🧭 Strategy Suggestion

• Short-Term Traders: Consider breakout plays above $94.5K with a target around $100.9K.

• Mid-to-Long-Term Investors: On-chain signals support long-term holding as retail interest grows.

• Risk Management: Monitor RSI and MVRV-Z for overheating signs. Key support range lies between $86K and $90K.